Positive View on the Future
Joel Kotkin is one of the more objective commentators in the country when it comes to the economy. He was way ahead of his time in predicting the tech bubble bursting and is quite disappointed that we've continue to neglect our manufacturing sector--which is still the key to a healthy economy in the long term.
Thus, I was really surprised when he wrote a hopeful piece for Forbes.com the other day about the strength of our economy in the long run. Entitled "Don't Give Up on the U.S." (click here for story), he outlined our competitive advantages as follows:
1. The U.S. is the only advanced country in the world with viable demographics. By 2030, all our major rivals, save India, will be declining, with ever-larger numbers of retirees and a shrinking labor force. By 2050 Germany, Japan and South Korea could approach having twice as many people over 65 per capita as the U.S. By then, the U.S. will have 400 million people, which may be more than the entire EU and three times the population of our former archrival Russia.
2. In terms of energy resources, the U.S., combined with Canada, is the second richest region in the world after the Middle East. The country possesses vast resources of natural gas, about 90 years' worth, as well as strong areas for wind power. Given America's past profligacy, the country could derive considerable savings with even modest conservation efforts.
3. America remains the world's agricultural superpower, with the most arable land on the planet. With another 3 billion people expected on the planet by 2050, the U.S. should enjoy a continuing boom in food exports.
4. Military power matters now and in the future. We are not living in a Star Trek future of earthly harmony. The U.S. leads in military technology and, yes, our martial spirit remains a positive factor, despite the portrayals from Hollywood. For all its missteps, the U.S. military has achieved its strictly war-fighting missions--in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as a host of smaller conflicts--over the past 20 years. Meanwhile, Europe and Japan have taken themselves out of the military game, and it will be decades before China will be ready for a head-to-head challenge.
5. There is no large country that comes close to the U.S. as an entrepreneurial hotbed (Taiwan, Israel and Hong Kong come close but are far smaller). The recent Legatum Prosperity Index showed the U.S. remains by far the largest generator of new ideas and companies on the planet.
He goes on to note that China and India's future are more cloudy than many realize and discusses the key things we need to do right to make sure that we remain an economic superpower. The bottom line is that he makes me feel a lot better about our future and the world that our children will run in the distant future. It is well worth reading the entire article.
Thus, I was really surprised when he wrote a hopeful piece for Forbes.com the other day about the strength of our economy in the long run. Entitled "Don't Give Up on the U.S." (click here for story), he outlined our competitive advantages as follows:
1. The U.S. is the only advanced country in the world with viable demographics. By 2030, all our major rivals, save India, will be declining, with ever-larger numbers of retirees and a shrinking labor force. By 2050 Germany, Japan and South Korea could approach having twice as many people over 65 per capita as the U.S. By then, the U.S. will have 400 million people, which may be more than the entire EU and three times the population of our former archrival Russia.
2. In terms of energy resources, the U.S., combined with Canada, is the second richest region in the world after the Middle East. The country possesses vast resources of natural gas, about 90 years' worth, as well as strong areas for wind power. Given America's past profligacy, the country could derive considerable savings with even modest conservation efforts.
3. America remains the world's agricultural superpower, with the most arable land on the planet. With another 3 billion people expected on the planet by 2050, the U.S. should enjoy a continuing boom in food exports.
4. Military power matters now and in the future. We are not living in a Star Trek future of earthly harmony. The U.S. leads in military technology and, yes, our martial spirit remains a positive factor, despite the portrayals from Hollywood. For all its missteps, the U.S. military has achieved its strictly war-fighting missions--in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as a host of smaller conflicts--over the past 20 years. Meanwhile, Europe and Japan have taken themselves out of the military game, and it will be decades before China will be ready for a head-to-head challenge.
5. There is no large country that comes close to the U.S. as an entrepreneurial hotbed (Taiwan, Israel and Hong Kong come close but are far smaller). The recent Legatum Prosperity Index showed the U.S. remains by far the largest generator of new ideas and companies on the planet.
He goes on to note that China and India's future are more cloudy than many realize and discusses the key things we need to do right to make sure that we remain an economic superpower. The bottom line is that he makes me feel a lot better about our future and the world that our children will run in the distant future. It is well worth reading the entire article.
Labels: Economy
posted by City Manager @ 12:37 AM
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