The Neverending Story (California's Budget)
Here's an excellent piece from today's California City News blog:
2010 Budget & Ballot: There Will Be Blood
Dan Walters forecasted a "bloody battle" for the state budget in 2010 in the SacBee Friday. "They've scraped the bottom of the gimmick barrel, voters are livid and new taxes are functionally off the table," writes Walters, adding "This will be one of the bloodiest skirmishes the Capitol has ever seen – with the only option being that the most populous state in the nation default on its debts."
Current projections have the 2010 budget already in the hole somewhere between $15 and $25 billion -- depending on who you believe and how cynical you are on an economic turnaround in the next 6 months. So against this backdrop, and heading into the homestretch of 2009, why don't we take a look at what's in store for the State of California in 2010...Livid Voters.
Walters is right on the mark with that one, and we're not even going to bother looking up the current approval ratings for the legislature. We all know they're abominable, and what is for certain: voters will have plenty of opportunity to voice their displeasure in 2010.
At a macro level, you have a poisoned national political dialogue, rampant unemployment and all heading into a midterm election year that will have Republicans angling for a 1994-style takeover of congress. In California, you'll have former HP exec Carly Fiorina trying to oust Barbara Boxer -- if, that is, Fiorina makes it past Chuck DeVore in the republican primary. Which brings us to the first of several key indicators for 2010: to what end does the conservative right drive the primary season?
As was seen last month in a special election in New York, and this month in Orange County, the Republican grassroots is pushing staunchly conservative, if potentially flawed, candidates for office. Regardless of your position on these issues, how this plays out, and whether the winner of these battles remains viable in the general election, will have a profound impact on the outcome of races up and down the ticket. Lacking a "true conservative" in the Governor's race (for now), this will likely not impact the Republican Guv's primary, but may force Whitman to tack right on certain issues. Still too early to tell where that race is headed (on either side).
Contributing to the political calculus here will be the spate of initiatives up in November, which will more than anything drive the statewide turnout on key social issues. There are already "oldie but goodie" type measures on both sides -- from gay marriage to abortion issues -- lining up to drive the base of both parties.
The Budget and Governor's RaceIf you think voters are unhappy now, wait until they endure another 9 months of budget collapse and Capitol Civil War. With the aforementioned deficit on the horizon, the "special interests" in Sacramento will be loaded for bear, and in little mood to negotiate with a Governor on his last lap. As Walters wrote in the Bee, the SEIU has already stated "Budget solutions must include new revenue." So that gauntlet is down.
Sitting here today, it's difficult to see how the state's hands won't be in the pockets of local government again next year. Of course, the Prop 1A 'loan' from this year must technically be repaid before further borrowing, but the legislature has demonstrated creativity in this arena in the past. Locals will have an initiative of their own on the 2010 ballot, and a potentially large stake in several of the reform efforts, which brings us to...Slow Train Coming: ReformAmong the key reform proposals now circulating:
The League of California Cities, the California Transit Association and California Alliance for Jobs have submitted two ballot measures protecting local government revenues.
California Forward has submitted two proposals, one which addresses local government funding and taxing authority.
The Bay Area Council has submitted two proposals calling for a Constitutional Convention.
Each of these measures is fairly complex and nuanced, and we'll devote a lot more space to examining each of them in the coming months.
Some broadstrokes:
The League's effort is essentially an expansion of Prop 1A, and not unlike 1A's forerunner Prop 65. It would lock down local revenues and add HUTA and other local dollars into that "lockbox."
California Forward's measures include new (and protected) local taxation authority, but is on the surface lacking in broad protections for local revenues. The argument there is that the state will be more stable and less likely to raid if their reforms are instituted.
The Constitutional Convention (ConCon for short) is focused on fixing state government, with a lot of uncertainty as to how locals would come out on the other end.
And that's the basic picture going into 2010. A lot is still yet to be decided, for some perspective, one year ahead of the 2008 presidential election, pretty much everyone was making ready for a Hillary vs Rudy throwdown, and look where that ended up. But the players and the board are starting to come into focus, and if anything, the stakes are high and everyone will be playing to win. Get ready...
2010 Budget & Ballot: There Will Be Blood
Dan Walters forecasted a "bloody battle" for the state budget in 2010 in the SacBee Friday. "They've scraped the bottom of the gimmick barrel, voters are livid and new taxes are functionally off the table," writes Walters, adding "This will be one of the bloodiest skirmishes the Capitol has ever seen – with the only option being that the most populous state in the nation default on its debts."
Current projections have the 2010 budget already in the hole somewhere between $15 and $25 billion -- depending on who you believe and how cynical you are on an economic turnaround in the next 6 months. So against this backdrop, and heading into the homestretch of 2009, why don't we take a look at what's in store for the State of California in 2010...Livid Voters.
Walters is right on the mark with that one, and we're not even going to bother looking up the current approval ratings for the legislature. We all know they're abominable, and what is for certain: voters will have plenty of opportunity to voice their displeasure in 2010.
At a macro level, you have a poisoned national political dialogue, rampant unemployment and all heading into a midterm election year that will have Republicans angling for a 1994-style takeover of congress. In California, you'll have former HP exec Carly Fiorina trying to oust Barbara Boxer -- if, that is, Fiorina makes it past Chuck DeVore in the republican primary. Which brings us to the first of several key indicators for 2010: to what end does the conservative right drive the primary season?
As was seen last month in a special election in New York, and this month in Orange County, the Republican grassroots is pushing staunchly conservative, if potentially flawed, candidates for office. Regardless of your position on these issues, how this plays out, and whether the winner of these battles remains viable in the general election, will have a profound impact on the outcome of races up and down the ticket. Lacking a "true conservative" in the Governor's race (for now), this will likely not impact the Republican Guv's primary, but may force Whitman to tack right on certain issues. Still too early to tell where that race is headed (on either side).
Contributing to the political calculus here will be the spate of initiatives up in November, which will more than anything drive the statewide turnout on key social issues. There are already "oldie but goodie" type measures on both sides -- from gay marriage to abortion issues -- lining up to drive the base of both parties.
The Budget and Governor's RaceIf you think voters are unhappy now, wait until they endure another 9 months of budget collapse and Capitol Civil War. With the aforementioned deficit on the horizon, the "special interests" in Sacramento will be loaded for bear, and in little mood to negotiate with a Governor on his last lap. As Walters wrote in the Bee, the SEIU has already stated "Budget solutions must include new revenue." So that gauntlet is down.
Sitting here today, it's difficult to see how the state's hands won't be in the pockets of local government again next year. Of course, the Prop 1A 'loan' from this year must technically be repaid before further borrowing, but the legislature has demonstrated creativity in this arena in the past. Locals will have an initiative of their own on the 2010 ballot, and a potentially large stake in several of the reform efforts, which brings us to...Slow Train Coming: ReformAmong the key reform proposals now circulating:
The League of California Cities, the California Transit Association and California Alliance for Jobs have submitted two ballot measures protecting local government revenues.
California Forward has submitted two proposals, one which addresses local government funding and taxing authority.
The Bay Area Council has submitted two proposals calling for a Constitutional Convention.
Each of these measures is fairly complex and nuanced, and we'll devote a lot more space to examining each of them in the coming months.
Some broadstrokes:
The League's effort is essentially an expansion of Prop 1A, and not unlike 1A's forerunner Prop 65. It would lock down local revenues and add HUTA and other local dollars into that "lockbox."
California Forward's measures include new (and protected) local taxation authority, but is on the surface lacking in broad protections for local revenues. The argument there is that the state will be more stable and less likely to raid if their reforms are instituted.
The Constitutional Convention (ConCon for short) is focused on fixing state government, with a lot of uncertainty as to how locals would come out on the other end.
And that's the basic picture going into 2010. A lot is still yet to be decided, for some perspective, one year ahead of the 2008 presidential election, pretty much everyone was making ready for a Hillary vs Rudy throwdown, and look where that ended up. But the players and the board are starting to come into focus, and if anything, the stakes are high and everyone will be playing to win. Get ready...
Labels: Budget
posted by City Manager @ 6:53 AM
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